The Reasons Middle Eastern Investment Hasn't Turned Newcastle into Championship Challengers

The Newcastle manager is not given to dramatics or sweeping public pronouncements. So by his usual demeanor, his press conference following the weekend's loss to West Ham counts as a angry tirade. His side scored first but West Ham were ahead by the interval, while also hitting the post and having a penalty revoked by VAR, prompting Howe to make a three substitutions at the break.

“That was the frustrating thing about the first half,” Howe said. “I almost could have taken anyone off and I think this indicated of where we were at that stage in the game and it’s very, very rare for me to have that impression. Actually, I don’t think I have during my tenure as manager of the club, so I felt the squad needed some shaking up at half-time. That’s why I made those decisions.”

Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade and Emil Krafth all came off at half-time and Newcastle did stabilise to an extent in the latter period, without ever appearing like they could fight back into the game against an opponent that had secured just a single victory of their previous nine league matches. Given how packed the middle of the standings currently is, with a mere three-point gap dividing the top spots from mid-table, and a nine-point margin between second and 17th, a sequence of twelve points from ten matches has not placed Newcastle stranded but, equally, they cannot finish the season in thirteenth place.

The Issue of Perception

The problem to an extent is one of perception. In the Saudi Public Investment Fund, Newcastle have the wealthiest owners in the globe. The expectation when the PIF bought 80% of the team in recent years was that it would have a transformative effect, similar to the former Chelsea owner had at Chelsea or Sheikh Mansour had at Manchester City. The difference is that those two owners took over prior to the introduction of FFP regulations (while the ongoing charges against City relate to whether they violated those guidelines after they were implemented).

Financial restrictions restrict the capacity of proprietors, however rich, to invest funds on their teams and therefore likely would have slowed any Saudi effort to raise the team to the level of Manchester City. But it wasn't necessary for Newcastle’s spending to have been quite as cautious as it has; they could have spent more and remained within the limit – or simply taken a relatively meagre European penalty since their major issue is more with the European than the Premier League rules.

Stadium Investment and Financial Regulations

Additionally, stadium development is exempted from PSR assessments; the easiest way to raise income to generate additional PSR headroom would be to expand or redevelop the arena. Given the location of the home ground, with listed buildings on multiple sides, practically that likely implies constructing an completely new stadium. There was talk in March of potentially making the nearby relocation to Leazes Park – opposition from local groups could surely have been surmounted with a commitment to create a replacement green space on the current ground location – but there has not been no movement on that plan. There has occurred significant cutbacks from the PIF on a variety of projects as it refocuses on local investments; the attitude to Newcastle appears completely in keeping with that change of approach.

Player Sales Saga

The Alexander Isak episode was arose from that tension. A more confident management might have framed his transfer as essential to free up capital for further spending; rather there was a vain effort to keep him. This resulted in Newcastle began the season amid a sense of disappointment even with the acquisitions of several new players. The start was indifferent: one win in their initial six fixtures.

But it seemed a turning point was reached. They secured five victories in six matches before the weekend, a streak that featured convincing wins of Union Saint-Gilloise and a Portuguese club in the European competition. This explains the performance against the Hammers was such a shock. The issue perhaps is that the team's approach is extremely intense, high-energy; a slight drop-off in intensity can have significant effects. Maybe the strain of domestic, Champions League and Carabao Cup competition, five games in a fortnight, had taken its toll. The German forward featured in all five matches and appeared particularly weary.

The Nature of Modern Soccer

That’s the nature of modern the sport. Managers have to be prepared to make changes. The manager has been unfortunate that Wissa’s fitness issue has left him lacking attacking options but, regardless of how valid the reasons, Sunday’s showing was inexcusable –particularly after taking the lead at a ground ready to criticize its own side.

Howe will wish it was merely a temporary setback, an off-day when everybody is below par simultaneously, but if the Magpies are to qualify for the Champions League next season, let alone one day launch an genuine title challenge, they must not be as unreliable as this.

Robin Jacobs
Robin Jacobs

A seasoned poker strategist with over a decade of experience in high-stakes tournaments and coaching.