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The historic Ashes series may offer a reason to cheer, but this contest will also see the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day prior to the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Ageing Squad Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been growing curiosity with the age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is rare to have almost every player in a Test side being over 30, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with over 1,500 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any side knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous departures, but so far change has remained hypothetical: a process that would indeed be arriving the mountain when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, abruptly, change is here, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia assessment, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance undergoes a much more significant change with two key bowlers absent rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the side. Boland handling the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be wheeled onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a history of going down early in series and a pattern of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Future Unclear

The back half of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might see transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the visiting team. You can sense that change a-coming, rolling round the bend, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they don’t know when.